Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.73 – 143.73

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.9 ±10.4

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 49.55Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 25.18Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 50Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340 ±9.8

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 77.86Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 71.34Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -5.47Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8738, 5607, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8738, 5607, 11377

Auto

27.8 23%

Teleop

29.4 25%

Endgame

61.5 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3506, 4935, 11146

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3506, 4935, 11146

Auto

38.5 27%

Teleop

75.8 52%

Endgame

30.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score124.7pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19
Score range: 92–177
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 185.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.9Season APEX340

27.8Auto38.5

29.4Teleop75.8

61.5Endgame30.4

113Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	31
teleop	57	118
endgame	14	42
foul	5	0
total	92	191

Result

Final score

92 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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