Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.75 – 114.06

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

452 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 108.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.4 ±9.8

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 30.56Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 161.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 70.61Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.9 ±10.4

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 29.73Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 20.32Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 64.01Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9559, 9032, 2640

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9559, 9032, 2640

Auto

59.5 21%

Teleop

164.3 59%

Endgame

56.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 9788, 1225

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8205, 9788, 1225

Auto

18.0 18%

Teleop

41.7 42%

Endgame

39.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score262.8pts

Blue projected score114.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.7
Score range: 77–300
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 205.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.4Season APEX179.9

59.5Auto18

164.3Teleop41.7

56.7Endgame39.4

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	24
teleop	285	33
endgame	98	30
foul	0	0
total	452	87

Result

Final score

452 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 108.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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