Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.21 – 275.49

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.6 ±10.4

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 29.76Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 54.17Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 49.28Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.4 ±9.8

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 64.82Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 54.06Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 156.61Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3459, 7918, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3459, 7918, 4534

Auto

36.2 29%

Teleop

50.4 41%

Endgame

36.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5160, 2640, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5160, 2640, 7890

Auto

51.6 19%

Teleop

163.1 60%

Endgame

55.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.58 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score133.2pts

Blue projected score275.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.3
Score range: 100–308
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.6Season APEX330.4

36.2Auto51.6

50.4Teleop163.1

36.3Endgame55.2

27Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	47
teleop	81	149
endgame	25	17
foul	15	0
total	143	213

Result

Final score

143 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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