Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.5 – 256.79

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 78.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.5 ±10.4

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 81.44Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 30.06Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX -10Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.4 ±10.4

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 67.47Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 63.9Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 125.42Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6502, 11179, 6888

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~0.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6502, 11179, 6888

Auto

28.5 28%

Teleop

60.6 58%

Endgame

14.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9297, 9559, 6500

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9297, 9559, 6500

Auto

55.7 22%

Teleop

124.4 49%

Endgame

71.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.43 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score101.5pts

Blue projected score256.8pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.3
Score range: 69–290
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.5Season APEX267.4

28.5Auto55.7

60.6Teleop124.4

14.5Endgame71.7

80Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	30
teleop	81	112
endgame	55	38
foul	0	5
total	187	185

Result

Final score

187 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 78.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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