Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.83 – 191.1

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.2 ±10.4

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 8.17Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 87.05Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 34.61Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.3 ±9.8

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 23.16Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 158.6Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 9.34Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10248, 2059, 11417

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10248, 2059, 11417

Auto

10.3 9%

Teleop

66.0 56%

Endgame

42.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11353, 4795, 9150

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11353, 4795, 9150

Auto

46.0 25%

Teleop

95.9 53%

Endgame

39.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score129.8pts

Blue projected score191.1pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.3
Score range: 97–224
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 186.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.2Season APEX337.3

10.3Auto46

66Teleop95.9

42.2Endgame39.2

83Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	26
teleop	62	94
endgame	18	57
foul	30	0
total	140	177

Result

Final score

140 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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