Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.09 – 252.16

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.2 ±9.8

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 38.76Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 13.25Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 31.08Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.1 ±9.3

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 63.93Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 153.33Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 34.9Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4829, 10302, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~0.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4829, 10302, 6004

Auto

30.4 39%

Teleop

36.2 47%

Endgame

10.6 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8727, 4561, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8727, 4561, 7763

Auto

21.9 8%

Teleop

151.8 59%

Endgame

84.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.44 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score83.1pts

Blue projected score252.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.1
Score range: 49–286
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 186.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.2Season APEX469.1

30.4Auto21.9

36.2Teleop151.8

10.6Endgame84.8

54Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	33
teleop	36	153
endgame	29	45
foul	0	5
total	84	236

Result

Final score

84 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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