Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.26 – 236.02

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.1 ±10.4

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 25.26Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX -1.95Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 39.95Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.2 ±9.4

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 4.27Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 180.92Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 50.83Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10077, 10121, 3336

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~0.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10077, 10121, 3336

Auto

-1.9 0%

Teleop

37.8 71%

Endgame

17.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9788, 9496, 3196

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9788, 9496, 3196

Auto

46.7 20%

Teleop

133.9 57%

Endgame

54.2 23%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.37 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score63.3pts

Blue projected score236pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.8
Score range: 29–270
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 186.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.1Season APEX402.2

-1.9Auto46.7

37.8Teleop133.9

17.2Endgame54.2

119Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	53
teleop	13	187
endgame	14	85
foul	5	0
total	52	325

Result

Final score

52 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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