Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.01 – 137.85

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±10.4

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 63.63Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 78.31Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -32.93Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.8 ±9.8

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 25.79Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 37.76Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 74.3Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1225, 3229, 8746

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1225, 3229, 8746

Auto

24.4 22%

Teleop

46.0 42%

Endgame

38.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 11285, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8205, 11285, 6639

Auto

11.0 8%

Teleop

65.1 48%

Endgame

59.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score109pts

Blue projected score137.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.8
Score range: 75–172
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 187.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.1Season APEX282.8

24.4Auto11

46Teleop65.1

38.5Endgame59.3

108Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	17
teleop	116	40
endgame	83	19
foul	0	0
total	227	76

Result

Final score

227 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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