Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.12 – 184.8

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.8 ±9.8

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 1.62Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 124.67Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 95.83Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.5 ±9.3

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 43.83Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 109.34Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 31.63Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2682, 2724, 4828

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2682, 2724, 4828

Auto

49.6 24%

Teleop

105.5 51%

Endgame

53.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8429, 1533, 8757

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8429, 1533, 8757

Auto

45.7 24%

Teleop

133.2 69%

Endgame

13.5 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score222.1pts

Blue projected score184.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.3
Score range: 151–256
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 187.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.8Season APEX395.5

49.6Auto45.7

105.5Teleop133.2

53.1Endgame13.5

142Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	40
teleop	91	87
endgame	87	30
foul	15	0
total	218	157

Result

Final score

218 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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