Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.6 – 346.88

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.4 ±10.4

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 76.05Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 89.36Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 56.19Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.5 ±9.8

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 19.85Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 82.81Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 244.22Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4935, 6894, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4935, 6894, 11377

Auto

25.7 12%

Teleop

122.6 55%

Endgame

74.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11353, 6502, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11353, 6502, 9032

Auto

48.6 14%

Teleop

217.4 63%

Endgame

76.5 22%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score221.6pts

Blue projected score346.9pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.3
Score range: 189–380
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.4Season APEX405.5

25.7Auto48.6

122.6Teleop217.4

74.4Endgame76.5

52Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	72
teleop	57	234
endgame	65	61
foul	0	0
total	164	367

Result

Final score

164 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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