Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.17 – 118.78

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.1 ±9.3

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 42.69Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 86.51Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 149.97Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.6 ±10.4

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 58.43Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX -6.37Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 66.72Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8738, 3506, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8738, 3506, 4561

Auto

32.4 12%

Teleop

168.6 60%

Endgame

78.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4534, 6888, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4534, 6888, 8727

Auto

19.5 16%

Teleop

84.1 67%

Endgame

21.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score279.2pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.4
Score range: 86–312
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 185.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.1Season APEX251.6

32.4Auto19.5

168.6Teleop84.1

78.5Endgame21.2

58Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	26
teleop	145	28
endgame	80	27
foul	0	0
total	264	81

Result

Final score

264 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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