Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

251.25 – 318.91

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425 ±9.3

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 127.37Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 9.56Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 114.32Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.7 ±10.4

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 101.61Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 127.57Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 89.73Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 11146, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7890, 11146, 8429

Auto

51.8 21%

Teleop

138.4 56%

Endgame

56.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2059, 6500, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2059, 6500, 4534

Auto

46.8 15%

Teleop

185.9 61%

Endgame

71.8 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.3pts

Blue projected score318.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.7
Score range: 214–356
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 205.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425Season APEX343.7

51.8Auto46.8

138.4Teleop185.9

56.1Endgame71.8

49Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	27
teleop	88	150
endgame	33	70
foul	0	0
total	169	247

Result

Final score

169 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree