Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.36 – 169.92

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.6 ±10.4

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 46.22Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX -14.47Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 0.61Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.6 ±9.8

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 41.74Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 88.37Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 39.81Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11285, 10121, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11285, 10121, 9788

Auto

4.0 15%

Teleop

12.3 46%

Endgame

10.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3336, 2059, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3336, 2059, 6004

Auto

17.8 11%

Teleop

99.9 63%

Endgame

41.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.47 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score32.4pts

Blue projected score169.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.6
Score range: -1–203
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 185.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.6Season APEX228.6

4Auto17.8

12.3Teleop99.9

10.4Endgame41.6

151Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	12
teleop	15	91
endgame	19	50
foul	15	15
total	61	168

Result

Final score

61 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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