Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.29 – 182.72

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 262

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.5 ±9.8

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -25.91Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 113.52Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 120.68Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.7 ±10.4

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 84.05Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 40.7Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 57.97Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8746, 2724, 6500

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8746, 2724, 6500

Auto

51.1 25%

Teleop

111.3 55%

Endgame

41.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4828, 7918, 5160

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4828, 7918, 5160

Auto

34.7 19%

Teleop

90.8 51%

Endgame

53.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score208.3pts

Blue projected score182.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.6
Score range: 150–241
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 183.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.5Season APEX234.7

51.1Auto34.7

111.3Teleop90.8

41Endgame53.7

73Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	89
teleop	93	124
endgame	57	34
foul	5	15
total	240	262

Result

Final score

240 – 262

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.