Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.82 – 71.11

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.3 ±10.4

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 25.09Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 20.57Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 5.16Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146 ±10.4

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 10.45Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 21.04Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 39.62Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8757, 8205, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8757, 8205, 5607

Auto

27.4 56%

Teleop

-1.2 0%

Endgame

22.6 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9150, 10077, 3459

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9150, 10077, 3459

Auto

21.3 33%

Teleop

-8.0 0%

Endgame

51.5 79%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score50.8pts

Blue projected score71.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.3
Score range: 17–105
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 186.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.3Season APEX146

27.4Auto21.3

-1.2Teleop-8

22.6Endgame51.5

107Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	20
teleop	64	22
endgame	24	11
foul	0	0
total	117	53

Result

Final score

117 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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