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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.6 – 172.58

78%22%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.5 ±9.3
4795Eastbots
A
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 174.48Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
3196Team SPORK
D
Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 50.51Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
7763Carrborobotics
C
Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 50.61Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.1 ±9.8
1225The Gorillas
D
Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 52.09Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
8429Valence Robotics
B
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 49.92Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9297BOGOBOTS
C
Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 70.57Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4795, 3196, 7763
82
/ 100 compat
Projected
275.6 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4795, 3196, 7763
Auto
48.5 18%
Teleop
137.0 51%
Endgame
83.0 31%
Strengths
  • · 4795 anchors offense
  • · Reliable endgame stack
  • · Well-balanced across phases
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1225, 8429, 9297
64
/ 100 compat
Projected
172.6 pts
~0.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1225, 8429, 9297
Auto
39.7 23%
Teleop
90.6 52%
Endgame
44.0 25%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.74
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score275.6pts
Blue projected score172.6pts
Red win probability78%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 25%, blue 20%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
103
Score range
139–310
Upset likelihood
22%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 188.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.5Season APEX362.1
48.5Auto39.7
137Teleop90.6
83Endgame44
44Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto1627
teleop151100
endgame7843
foul05
total245175

Result

Final score

245 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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