Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.93 – 79.36

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 83.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.9 ±9.3

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 47.6Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 93.51Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 242.82Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.9 ±10.4

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 61.1Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 28.37Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX -10.11Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4534, 1533, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4534, 1533, 9032

Auto

54.6 14%

Teleop

254.9 66%

Endgame

77.7 20%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3229, 11377, 10302

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~0.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3229, 11377, 10302

Auto

26.4 35%

Teleop

18.2 24%

Endgame

30.9 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.9pts

Blue projected score79.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 304.6
Score range: 46–417
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 184.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.9Season APEX177.9

54.6Auto26.4

254.9Teleop18.2

77.7Endgame30.9

69Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	25
teleop	260	126
endgame	89	57
foul	0	0
total	423	208

Result

Final score

423 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 83.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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