Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.67 – 31.2

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 100.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.1 ±10.4

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 4.38Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 77.8Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 71.49Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.9 ±9.8

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 105.06Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -57.61Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX -16.25Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9150, 6502, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9150, 6502, 8727

Auto

32.4 21%

Teleop

84.0 55%

Endgame

37.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7890, 8746, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7890, 8746, 11353

Auto

26.5 84%

Teleop

3.2 10%

Endgame

2.0 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score153.7pts

Blue projected score31.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.5
Score range: -2–187
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 185.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.1Season APEX266.9

32.4Auto26.5

84Teleop3.2

37.7Endgame2

82Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	34
teleop	92	102
endgame	60	65
foul	0	15
total	169	216

Result

Final score

169 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 100.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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