Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.83 – 194.49

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.6 ±9.8

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX -2.89Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 95.06Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 40.66Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±8.7

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 39.78Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 65.75Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 88.96Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2682, 3506, 3459

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2682, 3506, 3459

Auto

31.4 25%

Teleop

74.5 59%

Endgame

21.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6004, 7763, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6004, 7763, 6639

Auto

31.4 16%

Teleop

112.0 59%

Endgame

47.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score132.8pts

Blue projected score194.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.7
Score range: 100–227
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 184.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.6Season APEX368.8

31.4Auto31.4

74.5Teleop112

21.2Endgame47

99Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	8
teleop	61	75
endgame	26	55
foul	15	0
total	129	138

Result

Final score

129 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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