Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.72 – 96.02

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.6 ±9.8

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 145.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 26.57Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 24.6Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.6 ±9.8

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 31.18Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 38.43Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 26.41Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 11285, 6888

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4561, 11285, 6888

Auto

40.7 20%

Teleop

104.9 52%

Endgame

54.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10077, 7763, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10077, 7763, 11353

Auto

14.6 17%

Teleop

44.2 52%

Endgame

25.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score196.7pts

Blue projected score96pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.7
Score range: 59–234
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 205.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.6Season APEX209.6

40.7Auto14.6

104.9Teleop44.2

54.7Endgame25.4

86Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	16
teleop	123	30
endgame	51	8
foul	0	5
total	222	59

Result

Final score

222 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree