Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.37 – 74.59

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.2 ±10.4

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 88.61Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 50.68Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 1.08Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±10.4

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 36.6Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 10.65Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 27.34Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 1225, 6888

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6894, 1225, 6888

Auto

7.9 6%

Teleop

69.0 49%

Endgame

63.4 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3229, 8757, 11179

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3229, 8757, 11179

Auto

19.0 24%

Teleop

55.9 70%

Endgame

5.3 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.56 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score140.4pts

Blue projected score74.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.8
Score range: 42–173
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.2Season APEX184.6

7.9Auto19

69Teleop55.9

63.4Endgame5.3

132Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	23
teleop	91	97
endgame	25	51
foul	0	0
total	149	171

Result

Final score

149 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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