Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.22 – 8.52

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.5 ±9.8

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 34.82Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 16.53Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 38.87Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.4 ±10.4

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -3.56Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 0.17Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 11.91Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8429, 10077, 3196

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8429, 10077, 3196

Auto

30.6 35%

Teleop

35.0 40%

Endgame

22.8 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11146, 9788, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11146, 9788, 10248

Auto

14.7 100%

Teleop

-11.9 0%

Endgame

1.8 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score90.2pts

Blue projected score8.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.7
Score range: -25–124
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.5Season APEX140.4

30.6Auto14.7

35Teleop-11.9

22.8Endgame1.8

50Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	24
teleop	93	19
endgame	38	9
foul	0	0
total	160	52

Result

Final score

160 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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