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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST North Carolina State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

345.83 – 356.9

47%53%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

478 – 301

Prediction missed · off by 94 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.6 ±9.8
9032RoboWhales
A
Season APEX 265Event APEX 222.37Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
6500GearCats
C
Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 76.21Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4935T-Rex
D
Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 47.25Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.2 ±9.3
1533Triple Strange
B
Season APEX 157Event APEX 103.68Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4795Eastbots
A
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 183.19Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
11417Nano Knights
B
Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 70.03Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 6500, 4935
84
/ 100 compat
Projected
345.8 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9032, 6500, 4935
Auto
65.2 19%
Teleop
190.9 55%
Endgame
89.9 26%
Strengths
  • · 9032 anchors offense
  • · Well-balanced across phases
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 14%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1533, 4795, 11417
82
/ 100 compat
Projected
356.9 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1533, 4795, 11417
Auto
49.4 14%
Teleop
224.9 64%
Endgame
77.5 22%
Strengths
  • · 4795 anchors offense
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 14%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score345.8pts
Blue projected score356.9pts
Red win probability47%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 30%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
-11.1
Score range
313–390
Upset likelihood
47%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset
High scoring

Combined score 779 vs event baseline 180.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.6Season APEX556.2
65.2Auto49.4
190.9Teleop224.9
89.9Endgame77.5
82Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto7158
teleop309145
endgame9878
foul020
total478301

Result

Final score

478 – 301

Prediction missed · off by 94 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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