Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.35 – 58.26

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 79.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±10.4

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 6.47Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 74.75Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 100.13Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±9.8

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 89Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX -2.07Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX -28.67Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10302, 2640, 9297

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10302, 2640, 9297

Auto

33.5 20%

Teleop

107.5 63%

Endgame

28.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2724, 5607, 10121

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2724, 5607, 10121

Auto

9.7 15%

Teleop

51.6 78%

Endgame

5.1 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score181.4pts

Blue projected score58.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.1
Score range: 25–214
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.1Season APEX338.2

33.5Auto9.7

107.5Teleop51.6

28.4Endgame5.1

56Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	49
teleop	40	35
endgame	28	35
foul	15	35
total	118	154

Result

Final score

118 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 79.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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