Qualification · Qualification 24
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
48.29 – 104.06
33%67%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
115 – 106
Prediction missed · off by 34.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 153.9Event APEX -25.34Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 48.27Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 25.36Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 83.26Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 42Event APEX -20.98Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 41.78Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2682, 4534, 11179
20
/ 100 compatProjected
48.3 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2682, 4534, 11179
Auto
5.1 10%
Teleop
46.5 95%
Endgame
-2.6 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 13%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11285, 11353, 1225
52
/ 100 compatProjected
104.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 11285, 11353, 1225
Auto
28.9 30%
Teleop
47.1 48%
Endgame
21.5 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 13%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.57
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score48.3pts
Blue projected score104.1pts
Red win probability33%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 13%, blue 17%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -55.8
- Score range
- 14–138
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
326.5Season APEX170.9
5.1Auto28.9
46.5Teleop47.1
-2.6Endgame21.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 24 | 21 |
| teleop | 60 | 44 |
| endgame | 16 | 41 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 115 | 106 |
Result
Final score
115 – 106
Prediction missed · off by 34.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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