Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.81 – 220.7

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 253

Prediction missed · off by 179.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±9.8

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 39.51Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -41.44Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 43.74Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.6 ±10.4

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 91.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 37.72Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 91.47Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 3459, 4828

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4561, 3459, 4828

Auto

39.9 100%

Teleop

-0.5 0%

Endgame

-1.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2059, 3196, 6894

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2059, 3196, 6894

Auto

20.6 10%

Teleop

121.4 56%

Endgame

74.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score41.8pts

Blue projected score220.7pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.9
Score range: 9–254
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 183.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.3Season APEX228.6

39.9Auto20.6

-0.5Teleop121.4

-1.1Endgame74

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	21
teleop	167	125
endgame	139	92
foul	0	15
total	369	253

Result

Final score

369 – 253

Prediction missed · off by 179.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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