Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.62 – 106.84

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 85.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.5 ±9.3

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 44.31Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 89.5Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 205.81Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.9 ±9.8

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 40.11Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 87.63Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -20.9Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6888, 7890, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6888, 7890, 4795

Auto

54.8 17%

Teleop

189.3 57%

Endgame

87.7 26%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4935, 1533, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~0.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4935, 1533, 10077

Auto

27.2 26%

Teleop

79.3 75%

Endgame

-0.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score339.6pts

Blue projected score106.8pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 232.8
Score range: 75–372
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 179.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.5Season APEX276.9

54.8Auto27.2

189.3Teleop79.3

87.7Endgame-0.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	36
teleop	159	126
endgame	82	63
foul	0	0
total	287	225

Result

Final score

287 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 85.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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