Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.46 – 96.82

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 117.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.2 ±8.8

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 54.45Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 25.58Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 128.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.7 ±10.4

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 49.53Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 45.99Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 1.3Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7763, 5160, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7763, 5160, 9496

Auto

48.8 24%

Teleop

122.5 61%

Endgame

30.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6502, 11417, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6502, 11417, 3229

Auto

19.6 20%

Teleop

48.6 49%

Endgame

30.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score208.5pts

Blue projected score96.8pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.6
Score range: 65–240
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 175.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.2Season APEX326.7

48.8Auto19.6

122.5Teleop48.6

30.5Endgame30.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	30
teleop	190	114
endgame	66	72
foul	0	15
total	310	231

Result

Final score

310 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 117.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree