Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.63 – 84.45

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.7 ±9.8

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 0.16Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 29.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 65.58Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.3 ±10.4

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX -13.33Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 2.11Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 95.67Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10302, 8738, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10302, 8738, 6639

Auto

18.5 20%

Teleop

38.5 42%

Endgame

34.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9788, 9150, 2640

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9788, 9150, 2640

Auto

37.1 43%

Teleop

35.7 41%

Endgame

13.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score84.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 52–128
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 176.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.7Season APEX192.3

18.5Auto37.1

38.5Teleop35.7

34.3Endgame13.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	27
teleop	98	55
endgame	62	11
foul	15	10
total	190	103

Result

Final score

190 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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