Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.43 – 183.09

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 131.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.4 ±9.8

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 164.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 23.65Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 45.38Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.9 ±9.8

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 95.51Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 47.4Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 40.18Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 11146, 9297

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9032, 11146, 9297

Auto

48.2 21%

Teleop

142.4 62%

Endgame

38.8 17%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6004, 10248, 8757

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6004, 10248, 8757

Auto

33.6 18%

Teleop

103.9 56%

Endgame

47.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score233.4pts

Blue projected score183.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.3
Score range: 152–264
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.4Season APEX155.9

48.2Auto33.6

142.4Teleop103.9

38.8Endgame47.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	17
teleop	202	26
endgame	111	15
foul	0	0
total	371	58

Result

Final score

371 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 131.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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