Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93 – 214.79

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 120 ±10.4

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 106.53Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -15.22Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 1.69Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 629.6 ±8.7

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 119.64Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 4.38Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 90.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9559, 8746, 10121

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9559, 8746, 10121

Auto

28.7 30%

Teleop

47.0 48%

Endgame

21.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3506, 8429, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3506, 8429, 2724

Auto

45.9 21%

Teleop

119.8 56%

Endgame

48.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.5 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score93pts

Blue projected score214.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.8
Score range: 61–247
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 175.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

120Season APEX629.6

28.7Auto45.9

47Teleop119.8

21.4Endgame48.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	48
teleop	10	203
endgame	17	37
foul	0	0
total	47	288

Result

Final score

47 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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