Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.96 – 160.59

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 102.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.6 ±10.4

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 65.03Rank 50Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 26.72Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX -25.79Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±10.4

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 8.14Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 81.62Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 70.83Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 3336, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6894, 3336, 5607

Auto

5.6 10%

Teleop

25.4 47%

Endgame

23.2 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4829, 11285, 6500

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4829, 11285, 6500

Auto

33.8 21%

Teleop

86.9 55%

Endgame

37.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.63 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score66pts

Blue projected score160.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.6
Score range: 35–192
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 172.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.6Season APEX274

5.6Auto33.8

25.4Teleop86.9

23.2Endgame37.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	59
teleop	89	108
endgame	73	54
foul	20	5
total	206	226

Result

Final score

206 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 102.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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