Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.53 – 50.52

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 138.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375 ±9.8

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 43.05Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 41.67Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 42.81Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.4 ±10.4

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 20.44Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 8.48Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 21.6Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1533, 2059, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1533, 2059, 8727

Auto

3.9 3%

Teleop

90.1 69%

Endgame

35.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7918, 3196, 11179

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7918, 3196, 11179

Auto

12.8 24%

Teleop

30.9 58%

Endgame

9.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score127.5pts

Blue projected score50.5pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77
Score range: 21–158
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 168.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375Season APEX212.4

3.9Auto12.8

90.1Teleop30.9

35.9Endgame9.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	34
teleop	237	72
endgame	46	26
foul	0	0
total	323	132

Result

Final score

323 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 138.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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