Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.48 – 74.04

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

331 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.9 ±9.8

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 30.66Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 52.46Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 172.36Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±9.8

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 58.49Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -9.74Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 25.29Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4935, 4828, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4935, 4828, 4795

Auto

38.8 15%

Teleop

167.6 66%

Endgame

47.4 19%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4534, 5160, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~0.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4534, 5160, 6639

Auto

6.8 9%

Teleop

41.0 55%

Endgame

27.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.5pts

Blue projected score74pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.4
Score range: 45–284
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.9Season APEX345.9

38.8Auto6.8

167.6Teleop41

47.4Endgame27.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	25
teleop	163	131
endgame	89	45
foul	15	5
total	331	206

Result

Final score

331 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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