Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.7 – 201.06

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.7 ±9.4

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 26.57Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 159.77Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 64.36Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.3 ±9.8

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 26.57Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 156.2Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 18.29Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3459, 9496, 11146

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3459, 9496, 11146

Auto

46.0 18%

Teleop

150.1 60%

Endgame

53.1 21%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10302, 9032, 8746

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10302, 9032, 8746

Auto

28.0 14%

Teleop

121.3 60%

Endgame

51.8 26%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.67 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score250.7pts

Blue projected score201.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.6
Score range: 172–280
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 160.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.7Season APEX370.3

46Auto28

150.1Teleop121.3

53.1Endgame51.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	46
teleop	59	84
endgame	8	18
foul	0	0
total	129	148

Result

Final score

129 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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