Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.05 – 134.67

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.1 ±10.4

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 20.09Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 43.39Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 70.57Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.5 ±9.8

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 35.81Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 28.29Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 70.57Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11353, 8205, 8738

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11353, 8205, 8738

Auto

16.5 13%

Teleop

68.2 53%

Endgame

44.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9297, 8757, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9297, 8757, 2724

Auto

17.2 14%

Teleop

70.4 57%

Endgame

36.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score134.1pts

Blue projected score134.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.6
Score range: 105–164
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.1Season APEX388.5

16.5Auto17.2

68.2Teleop70.4

44.9Endgame36.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	36
teleop	19	126
endgame	27	53
foul	5	0
total	72	215

Result

Final score

72 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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