Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.24 – 172.92

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 289

Prediction missed · off by 148.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.4 ±9.8

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 24.86Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 140.57Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 61.81Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.1 ±9.8

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 61.81Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 40.54Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 70.57Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9788, 6004, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9788, 6004, 3229

Auto

40.6 18%

Teleop

135.6 60%

Endgame

49.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3506, 6502, 6500

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3506, 6502, 6500

Auto

17.6 10%

Teleop

104.2 60%

Endgame

51.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score227.2pts

Blue projected score172.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.3
Score range: 144–256
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 161.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.4Season APEX433.1

40.6Auto17.6

135.6Teleop104.2

49.7Endgame51.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	72
teleop	21	165
endgame	0	47
foul	0	5
total	46	289

Result

Final score

46 – 289

Prediction missed · off by 148.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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