Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.08 – 207.8

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.5 ±10.4

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 30.38Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 23.47Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 85.23Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.6 ±9.8

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 83.37Rank 7Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 109.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 14.5Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5607, 10248, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5607, 10248, 6502

Auto

31.7 24%

Teleop

64.8 49%

Endgame

35.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4828, 1533, 10121

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4828, 1533, 10121

Auto

45.3 23%

Teleop

100.2 52%

Endgame

47.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.78 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score139.1pts

Blue projected score207.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.7
Score range: 102–245
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 205.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.5Season APEX273.6

31.7Auto45.3

64.8Teleop100.2

35.8Endgame47.8

108Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	22
teleop	42	117
endgame	40	18
foul	0	0
total	100	157

Result

Final score

100 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree