Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

320.07 – 451.18

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 142.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.8 ±8.7

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 36.27Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 140.57Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 143.23Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.2 ±8.8

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 170.47Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 45.11Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 235.6Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7763, 4795, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7763, 4795, 4561

Auto

44.1 14%

Teleop

177.6 57%

Endgame

88.3 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9032, 8205, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9032, 8205, 9496

Auto

92.9 19%

Teleop

281.8 58%

Endgame

110.5 23%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score320.1pts

Blue projected score451.2pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.1
Score range: 283–488
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 589 vs event baseline 204.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.8Season APEX618.2

44.1Auto92.9

177.6Teleop281.8

88.3Endgame110.5

57Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	19
teleop	175	80
endgame	96	114
foul	25	5
total	371	218

Result

Final score

371 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 142.1 pts

Match videos

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