Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

307.4 – 418.17

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

399 – 318

Prediction missed · off by 95.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.8 ±8.7

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 31.09Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 136.4Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 139.91Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 632.8 ±8.1

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 173.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 5.44Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 238.86Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7763, 4795, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7763, 4795, 4561

Auto

39.8 13%

Teleop

175.2 58%

Endgame

87.4 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9032, 6004, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9032, 6004, 9496

Auto

95.6 20%

Teleop

291.5 60%

Endgame

101.8 21%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score307.4pts

Blue projected score418.2pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.8
Score range: 270–455
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 717 vs event baseline 203.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.8Season APEX632.8

39.8Auto95.6

175.2Teleop291.5

87.4Endgame101.8

76Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	61
teleop	188	137
endgame	95	120
foul	45	0
total	399	318

Result

Final score

399 – 318

Prediction missed · off by 95.9 pts

Match videos

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