Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
52.16 – 89.53
39%61%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
69 – 52
Prediction missed · off by 27.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.4 ±11.6
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 9.4Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 27.17Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 15.59Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.4 ±11.6
Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 29.67Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 30.77Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 29.09Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10412, 1225, 5727
49
/ 100 compatProjected
52.2 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 10412, 1225, 5727
Auto
9.1 18%
Teleop
25.0 51%
Endgame
15.2 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4935, 10107, 10704
67
/ 100 compatProjected
89.5 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 4935, 10107, 10704
Auto
11.9 14%
Teleop
47.8 56%
Endgame
26.0 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.54
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score52.2pts
Blue projected score89.5pts
Red win probability39%
Event bonus sample142alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 15%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -37.4
- Score range
- 38–104
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
139.4Season APEX174.4
9.1Auto11.9
25Teleop47.8
15.2Endgame26
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 10 |
| teleop | 47 | 21 |
| endgame | 6 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 69 | 52 |
Result
Final score
69 – 52
Prediction missed · off by 27.2 pts
Match videos
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