Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
136.54 – 34.57
78%22%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
266 – 58
Prediction correct · off by 76.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.7 ±10.5
Season APEX 26Event APEX -2.72Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 88.09Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 51.17Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 17.38Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 5.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 12.06Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3680, 6500, 2724
82
/ 100 compatProjected
136.5 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3680, 6500, 2724
Auto
34.2 25%
Teleop
80.0 59%
Endgame
21.9 16%
Strengths
- · 6500 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10248, 8757, 9605
39
/ 100 compatProjected
34.6 pts
~0.6 RP (district)
Teams: 10248, 8757, 9605
Auto
11.6 34%
Teleop
13.9 40%
Endgame
8.9 26%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.62
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score136.5pts
Blue projected score34.6pts
Red win probability78%
Event bonus sample142alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 15%, blue 14%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 102
- Score range
- 22–150
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
394.7Season APEX123.4
34.2Auto11.6
80Teleop13.9
21.9Endgame8.9
57Consistency20
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 27 | 23 |
| teleop | 169 | 22 |
| endgame | 40 | 13 |
| foul | 30 | 0 |
| total | 266 | 58 |
Result
Final score
266 – 58
Prediction correct · off by 76.4 pts
Match videos
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