Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.02 – 70.79

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.4 ±11.6

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 30.97Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 33.15Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 30.9Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.3 ±10.4

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 16.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 31.95Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 22.17Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4935, 10107, 10704

/ 100 compat

Projected

95 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4935, 10107, 10704

Auto

11.7 13%

Teleop

52.8 59%

Endgame

24.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3196, 6894, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3196, 6894, 11377

Auto

21.4 30%

Teleop

35.3 50%

Endgame

14.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95pts

Blue projected score70.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.2
Score range: 58–108
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 74.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.4Season APEX174.3

11.7Auto21.4

52.8Teleop35.3

24.6Endgame14.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	32
teleop	38	33
endgame	33	33
foul	0	0
total	85	98

Result

Final score

85 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 18.6 pts

Match videos

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