Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.2 – 81.36

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.7 ±10.5

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 63.58Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 101.31Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 12.31Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.3 ±10.4

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 20.72Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 34.45Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 26.19Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2724, 6500, 3680

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2724, 6500, 3680

Auto

31.5 18%

Teleop

107.8 63%

Endgame

31.5 18%

Strengths

· 6500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3196, 6894, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3196, 6894, 11377

Auto

24.2 33%

Teleop

31.0 42%

Endgame

18.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.2pts

Blue projected score81.4pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.8
Score range: 66–192
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 80.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.7Season APEX174.3

31.5Auto24.2

107.8Teleop31

31.5Endgame18.5

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	31
teleop	99	44
endgame	46	23
foul	0	5
total	152	103

Result

Final score

152 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Match videos

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