Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.71 – 79.06

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.4 ±11.6

10412TechBotTronics-1RSNC

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 10.5Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 29.65Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 17.56Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.3 ±10.4

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 19.93Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 33.61Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 25.52Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10412, 1225, 5727

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10412, 1225, 5727

Auto

10.7 20%

Teleop

28.4 53%

Endgame

14.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3196, 6894, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3196, 6894, 11377

Auto

22.6 32%

Teleop

29.4 42%

Endgame

18.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.7pts

Blue projected score79.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.3
Score range: 44–93
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 80.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.4Season APEX174.3

10.7Auto22.6

28.4Teleop29.4

14.8Endgame18.3

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	36
teleop	45	43
endgame	27	20
foul	0	0
total	89	99

Result

Final score

89 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Match videos

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