Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
60.44 – 52.63
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
92 – 97
Prediction missed · off by 38 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.7 ±11.6
Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 18.41Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 21.25Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 20.78Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.4 ±11.6
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 9.1Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 27.79Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 15.74Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9298, 900, 8727
53
/ 100 compatProjected
60.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 9298, 900, 8727
Auto
10.3 20%
Teleop
26.1 51%
Endgame
15.2 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 21%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10412, 1225, 5727
49
/ 100 compatProjected
52.6 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 10412, 1225, 5727
Auto
9.7 19%
Teleop
27.7 55%
Endgame
12.9 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 21%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.14
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score60.4pts
Blue projected score52.6pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample142alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 21%, blue 15%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 7.8
- Score range
- 39–74
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 189 vs event baseline 78.3.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
200.7Season APEX139.4
10.3Auto9.7
26.1Teleop27.7
15.2Endgame12.9
10Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 17 |
| teleop | 51 | 37 |
| endgame | 23 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 92 | 97 |
Result
Final score
92 – 97
Prediction missed · off by 38 pts
Match videos
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