Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.73 – 44.06

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.8 ±11.7

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 13.83Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 20.23Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX -8.33Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.4 ±11.6

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 12.79Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10412TechBotTronics-1RSNC

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 3.25Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 28.02Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3196, 11377, 6932

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3196, 11377, 6932

Auto

18.1 65%

Teleop

11.0 40%

Endgame

-1.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2640, 10412, 10107

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2640, 10412, 10107

Auto

8.6 21%

Teleop

21.5 52%

Endgame

11.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.7pts

Blue projected score44.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 13–57
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 73.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.8Season APEX153.4

18.1Auto8.6

11Teleop21.5

-1.3Endgame11.3

34Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	10
teleop	24	47
endgame	9	2
foul	0	45
total	60	104

Result

Final score

60 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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