Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.16 – 50.78

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107.4 ±12.2

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 12.52Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 11.04Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX -3.4Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 106.3 ±12.1

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 13.05Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 7.14Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 30.59Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9605, 8746, 5511

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9605, 8746, 5511

Auto

9.1 44%

Teleop

8.0 38%

Endgame

3.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5727, 9762, 10704

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5727, 9762, 10704

Auto

6.5 14%

Teleop

27.1 59%

Endgame

12.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.2pts

Blue projected score50.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.6
Score range: 7–64
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 73.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107.4Season APEX106.3

9.1Auto6.5

8Teleop27.1

3.7Endgame12.7

22Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	7
teleop	15	40
endgame	0	22
foul	0	0
total	24	69

Result

Final score

24 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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