Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.95 – 101.81

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 167

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.5 ±11

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 21.09Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 87.06Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 19.8Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.6 ±10.4

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 65.39Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 22.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 13.82Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9298, 6500, 9150

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9298, 6500, 9150

Auto

24.3 20%

Teleop

72.7 60%

Endgame

24.5 20%

Strengths

· 6500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4534, 1225, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4534, 1225, 10248

Auto

14.7 15%

Teleop

49.9 52%

Endgame

30.7 32%

Strengths

· 4534 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128pts

Blue projected score101.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.1
Score range: 89–141
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 71.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.5Season APEX212.6

24.3Auto14.7

72.7Teleop49.9

24.5Endgame30.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	16
teleop	71	108
endgame	31	38
foul	35	5
total	161	167

Result

Final score

161 – 167

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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