Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.9 – 25.38

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109.3 ±12.2

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX -11.38Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 29.61Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 5.67Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.2 ±11

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 8.73Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX -4.23Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 20.88Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6932, 6894, 9198

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6932, 6894, 9198

Auto

5.2 20%

Teleop

12.6 48%

Endgame

8.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8746, 3680, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8746, 3680, 8727

Auto

10.0 35%

Teleop

9.8 34%

Endgame

9.0 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.9pts

Blue projected score25.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.5
Score range: 11–38
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 71.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109.3Season APEX179.2

5.2Auto10

12.6Teleop9.8

8.2Endgame9

54Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	35	21
endgame	15	12
foul	0	0
total	65	49

Result

Final score

65 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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